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| Trump's Peace Plan Built on Sand: The Iran Question Nobody's Answering |
By: Ranjan Sarkhel
WASHINGTON/ISRAEL - As US President Donald Trump aggressively promotes his 20-point peace plan to end the two-year Israel-Hamas conflict, a critical flaw threatens to undermine the entire initiative before it even begins: the complete absence of Iran and its proxy network from the negotiating table.
Throughout the peace-making process, there has been zero involvement from Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the Houthis in Yemen—despite these actors being instrumental throughout the conflict.
This isn't a minor oversight; it's a fundamental structural weakness that raises an unavoidable question:
How can any peace agreement survive when the primary external sponsor of Hamas and coordinator of the multi-front war against Israel has been entirely excluded❓
Iran: The Missing Stakeholder
Iran has been the lifeblood of Hamas's military capabilities for over two decades, providing weapons, funding, training, and strategic guidance.
When the October 7, 2023 attacks triggered the current war, it wasn't just Hamas acting alone—Iran's entire "Axis of Resistance" mobilized in coordination.
Hezbollah launched sustained rocket attacks from Lebanon, forcing Israel to divert military resources northward.
The Houthis in Yemen attacked international shipping in the Red Sea and fired missiles toward Israeli territory, expanding the conflict's geographic scope dramatically.
These weren't spontaneous acts of solidarity—they were orchestrated components of Iran's regional strategy.
Yet Trump's 20-point plan treats Gaza as if it exists in isolation. It meticulously details Hamas's disarmament (Point 13), the destruction of tunnels and military infrastructure, deployment of an International Stabilization Force (Point 15), and a Trump-led "Board of Peace" to govern reconstruction (Point 9).
But nowhere does it address how to prevent Iran from simply rearming Hamas once international attention wanes, or how to stop Hezbollah and the Houthis from sabotaging the agreement through renewed attacks.
What's Missing: A Regional Framework
Any sustainable peace plan requires addressing Iran's strategic calculations and constraining its proxy network.At minimum, the plan should include:
1. Regional Security Guarantees: Explicit commitments from Iran—or credible enforcement mechanisms against Tehran—to prevent rearmament of Gaza and attacks from Hezbollah or Houthi forces.
2. Economic Pressure and Incentives: Coordination with regional partners (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) to either incentivize Iranian cooperation or impose severe costs for undermining the agreement.
3. Counter-Proxy Measures: Clear protocols for responding to Hezbollah or Houthi violations, including military options and international sanctions.
4. Political Accommodation: Acknowledgment of Iran's regional role and interests, potentially through parallel diplomatic tracks that address broader Middle East security architecture.
5. Verification Mechanisms: Independent monitoring not just of Gaza's demilitarization, but of weapons flows through Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen that could reconstitute Hamas's capabilities.
Trump's plan addresses none of these dimensions. Point 14 mentions "regional partners" guaranteeing Hamas compliance, but doesn't specify who these partners are or what happens when Iran actively works to subvert them.
Point 16 discusses Israeli withdrawal timelines, but offers no strategy for preventing Iran from filling any security vacuum.
Trump's Impatience Meets Strategic Reality
"This is a win. Take it," Trump reportedly snapped at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a weekend call, according to Axios.The President was celebrating Hamas's apparent willingness to release hostages, but Netanyahu dismissed the offer as "meaningless"—perhaps precisely because he understands that without addressing Iran, any deal is temporary.
Trump's response—"Don't be negative"—reveals his frustration, but also potentially his underestimation of the regional dynamics.
The President posted on Truth Social that "the first phase should be completed this week" and that discussions have been "very positive," pressing all parties to move quickly.
But speed without strategic depth could prove catastrophic.
Even if Hamas agrees to disarm and Israel withdraws under the plan's staged timeline, what prevents Iran from spending the next five years quietly rebuilding Hamas's capabilities through tunnels from Egypt or maritime smuggling ❓
What stops Hezbollah from launching attacks to derail the International Stabilization Force deployment? What leverage exists to prevent the Houthis from attacking reconstruction efforts?
Pakistan's Endorsement: Symbolism Without Substance?
In a notable diplomatic development, Pakistan—a prominent voice on Islamic causes—has endorsed Trump's proposal.This gives the plan some Muslim-world legitimacy and could encourage other Islamic nations to support it.
However, Pakistan's endorsement also highlights the Iran problem.
Islamabad maintains complex relations with Tehran and has limited influence over Iranian decision-making.
If Iran decides to undermine the agreement, Pakistan's symbolic support provides no practical deterrent.
The absence of Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Egyptian public commitments—regional powers with genuine capacity to pressure Iran—is equally telling.
The Ground Reality
As diplomatic maneuvering continues, the military situation in Gaza remains volatile.Israeli forces have assumed a defensive posture in Gaza City, though Hamas reports that airstrikes continue, killing dozens.
This operational pause reflects the fragile nature of any potential agreement—both sides remain postured for resumed conflict.
Trump's plan envisions complete demilitarization (Point 13), massive humanitarian aid (Point 7), economic revitalization through a special economic zone (Point 11), and eventual "credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination" (Point 19).
On paper, it offers both Israelis and Palestinians significant benefits.
But none of these provisions matter if Iran can veto the agreement through its proxies.
A single Hezbollah rocket barrage during hostage exchanges could collapse the 72-hour timeline in Point 4.
Houthi attacks on aid shipments could undermine the humanitarian provisions in Point 7.
Iranian weapons smuggling could render the demilitarization in Point 13 meaningless within months.
A Foundation That Won't Hold
The fundamental paradox of Trump's approach is this:
he's designed an intricate 20-point framework for Gaza's future while ignoring the external actor most capable of destroying that future.
Israel understands this reality, which likely explains Netanyahu's "negative" response despite Trump's pressure.
Jerusalem knows that accepting a deal without Iranian constraints means accepting temporary calm followed by inevitable rearmament and renewed conflict—the exact cycle that has repeated itself after every previous Gaza ceasefire.
Hamas, meanwhile, may be calculating that it can agree to disarmament knowing Iran will eventually restore its military capabilities once international attention moves elsewhere.
The 72-hour hostage release timeline in Point 4 and prisoner exchange in Point 5 could become a tactical retreat rather than genuine transformation.
The Silence from Tehran
As Trump pushes for deal completion within days, the silence from Tehran speaks volumes.Iran has made no public statements about the plan, neither endorsing nor rejecting it.
Hezbollah and the Houthis remain similarly quiet—a strategic ambiguity that preserves their options to either accept or sabotage whatever emerges.
This is the plan's Achilles heel. Without Iran at the table—or at minimum, a comprehensive strategy to neutralize Iranian interference—Trump's "historic opportunity for peace" may prove to be another temporary pause in an endless cycle.
The President has shown he can pressure Netanyahu and Hamas to negotiate.
The real test is whether he can build a peace framework that survives contact with regional realities that his current plan simply doesn't address.
Until the Iran question gets an answer, the durability of any Gaza peace agreement remains profoundly uncertain.
The clock is ticking not just on whether Israel and Hamas will sign—but on whether Trump will recognize that sustainable peace requires addressing the stakeholder he's left out of the room.
Without that foundation, even the most detailed 20-point plan remains a structure built on sand—impressive in design, but unlikely to withstand the first storm.
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